Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Crisis Maintenance at 3.3% GDP

Okay nobody is currently projecting 3.3% GDP growth in the short term. On the other hand this is in fact just under the 3.4% Real GDP average of 2004-2006. It is not crazy talk.

The vertical axis has the Intermediate Cost alternative projections given in the 2007 Report for the years from 2007 to 2016. The horizontal axis represents the numbers as they would have to be adjusted for 3.3% GDP over the period 2007-2012.
--------------2008----2009----2010----2011----2012

2007 2.6
2008 3.0-----2.9
2009 2.8-----2.7-----2.6
2010 2.6-----2.6-----2.5-----2.4
2011 2.6-----2.5-----2.4-----2.2-----2.1
2012 2.4-----2.3-----2.2-----2.1-----2.0-----1.9
2013 2.2-----2.1-----2.1-----2.1-----1.9-----1.9
2014 2.1-----2.1-----2.1-----2.0-----1.9-----1.9
2015 2.2-----2.1-----2.1-----2.0-----1.9-----1.9
2016 2.2-----2.1-----2.1-----2.0-----1.9-----1.9


At 3.3% Real GDP we hit ultimate numbers by 2012. In fact I only subtracted six out of nine points from the 2010 column, this would actually take 2017 from 2.2% to 1.9% as well.

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