Okay we have a DI Trust Fund whose assets went from $217.2 billion at the end of January to $216.2 billion at the end of February, a deficit of a $1 bn. Similarly we have an OAS Trust Fund whose assets went from $2.228 trillion to $2.237 trillion, a surplus of $9 bn. If we add the January numbers we have a starting combined balance of $2.445 trillion and if we add the February ones we get $2.453 trillion for a total surplus of $8 billion for the month.
Now compare that to the numbers in the following post at Notes on Social Security Reform Slowdown Slashes Social Security Surplus where he shows DI going from $216.2 billion at the end of Feb to $214.4 billion, a deficit of $1.8 billion and OAS going from $2.219.0 trillion to $2.219.5 trillion, for a surplus of $500 million. Which totals out to $2.434 trillion down a net $1.25 billion for the month.
Now his numbers are not made up, they come from a different section of the documents that supplied the Tables. So how can the same data set show a combined surplus of $8 billion in one place and a combined deficit of $1.25 billion somewhere else? Well on inspection it seems the answer is in the line item "Interest Receivable'. In the case of DI it went up from $907 million to $1.7 billion, in the case of OAS it went up from $9.2 billion to $17.4 billion in each case totally explaining the differences.
So maybe some of the hype surrounding 'Vanishing surpluses' needs to be put on hold.
4 comments:
Bruce
I can't quite follow this. can you give me a link so i can read the report myself.
i would not assume i know what "interest receivable" means.
it is very likely Biggs was trying to make what he would consider a valid case... that is a case which is technically true but misleading.
unfortunately, when dealing with the public, the press, and the politicians, misleading is 99% of the argument.
coberly
Mr. Webb
The Democratic Congress does not appear to want to really fix the prescription drug benefit. I, an activist want to pass this on to as many people as possible. I find it the point to take this issue to the public in this manner because simply writing a congressman or woman does not work.
People can contact me at info@democratz.org
Angry about Medicare Part D that does not help the middle class? You can do something about it.
I have a plan to fix the prescription drug benefit and more.
Get people to Send a free prewritten fax to Sen. Minority leader Mitch McConnell telling him to STOP EVERY REPUBLICAN FILIBUSTER, get the Employee Free Choice act enacted into law, along with single payer universal health care, a fix for the Medicare Prescription drug benefit, a 10 dollar an hour minimum wage, an end to the Iraq war and until that happens you will boycott some Republican campaign contributors.
You can go to http://write-congress.democratz.org and send Mitch McConnell a free prewritten fax. This web site appears completely noncommercial. I don't sell anything there.
We have to hit the friends of the GOP in their wallets. Oh and if you only send your fax, this will fail. You need to get friends to send the fax and have their friends send the free fax and so on.
Thank you!
PS the prewritten fax reads thusly:
Hello
I want the following actions taken
and legislation enacted into law.
Congress and the President must
enact HR 676 single payer universal
health care and set up a new
prescription drug benefit in
Medicare Part B covering 80% of the
cost of all drugs with no extra
monthly premiums, no extra yearly
deductible, no means tests, no
coverage gaps, and remove the means
test for Medicare Part B and until
that happens, I won't buy ANYTHING
from Republican contributor
Rite Aid Pharmacies.
The President must end the war in
Iraq and until that happens
I will not buy any products from
Republican contributor and War
contractor General Electric
Corporation.
Congress and the President must
enact a $10/HR MINIMUM WAGE
into law and until this happens
I will not go to any Republican
contributor Wendy's Restaurants.
In 2008 Brown-Forman of Kentucky,
the maker of Jack Daniels Whiskey
and Southern Comfort gave Mitch
McConnell money for his campaign.
SENATOR McCONNELL MUST NOT
EXECUTE ANY REPUBLICAN
FILIBUSTERS FOR 8 YEARS
DURING THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY
AND MUST GET THE EMPLOYEE
FREE CHOICE ACT ENACTED
INTO LAW AND UNTIL THAT
HAPPENS I WON'T BUY JACK
DANIELS WHISKEY OR SOUTHERN
COMFORT OR ANY OTHER OF THEIR
PRODUCTS.
Thank you.
People who want to justify dismantling Social Security always ignore the interest on the Trust Fund when they pick out facts to bolster their argument that Social Security is going broke in 2017. The justification for this is supposed to be the fact that the Trust Fund isn't "invested" but is used by the Treasury to pay for current spending. How do you counter the argument that U.S. government will not be able to honor the debt to the Trust Fund when current year payroll taxes are insufficient to pay benefits? I can't imagine the Treasury defaulting on this obligation but never know what to say when this is brought up.
Diane the 'Phony IOU' argument relies on an elaborate multi-layered pseudo-economic pseudo-legal argument that is almost impervious to rational thought.
It shares some characteristics with arguments that th Federal Reserve note (i.e. The dollar bill in your wallet) is just 'fiat money' or that you can just declare yourself immune from income tax. There is no simple answer anymore than you can argue with a LaRouchite.
If you are willing I commit the time and trap them into a comment exchange you can back them into corners in a way that they retreat in baffled silence. But while you might convince some bystanders along the way it is pretty rare that these people just concede.
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